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B.C. home prices will flatline over next two years: forecast

Housing market in 2019 and 2020 will be characterized by slower sales and more home inventory, says CMHC

The next two years in B.C. residential real estate will continue to see lower sales and higher inventories of homes available for purchase than in recent years, according to a forecast released November 6 by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

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This will cause average home prices across the province to “hold steady” over the next two years, said the federal housing agency.

The CMHC said in its report, “Shifting market conditions across B.C.’s large urban centres is resulting in movement back towards balanced or even buyers’ market conditions in some cases, which is beginning to flatten price growth or, in some areas [such as Metro Vancouver, see below], result in price declines.

“Overall, we anticipate MLS® sales to trough in 2018 and see some recovery in 2019-20 while MLS® average prices will see a relatively flat growth profile with some risk of decline as demand and supply find a new balance.”

CMHC expects MLS resales across B.C. to drop from 103,759 units in 2017 to between 76,600 and 83,400 sales this year. Sales are then expect to increase somewhat in 2019 to between 79,100 and 87,900 units, and then in 2020 to range between 81,500 and 92,500 sales. They are not expected to return to the 100,000 mark seen in 2016 and 2017.

The agency is forecasting the average B.C. MLS home sale price to be between $683K and $749K this year (2017 average sale price was $709,597). It is then expected to range from between $681,800 and $756,200 in 2019, and then hit somewhere between $675,400 and $758,600 in 2020.

The CMHC added in its report, “Housing starts activity in British Columbia should moderate as economic and population growth slows.”

The agency also predicted the next two years for the rental market in the province. It said, “Rental market conditions across B.C. are anticipated to loosen as a result of slower growth in demand and a significant amount of new rental units set to enter the market. However, demand for rental is anticipated to remain fairly robust and result in the apartment vacancy rate for the province increasing gradually through to 2020. Meanwhile, average rents for purpose built apartments are anticipated to continue to see increases stronger than inflation in both 2019 and 2020.”

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Updates

It has been a crazy year around our house with the full gamet of the human experience from health challenges in the family, to the excitement of a new home for our family, and the arrival of our third child (and second daughter), Nora Belle Derksen.
Through it all we are happy healthy and thankful and looking forward to getting away to the Okanagan in the next couple of weeks.
As always, my words can not properly describe the gratitude I have for your trust in me as you continue to send your friends and family members to work with me. Thank you!
If you are thinking of getting work done at your home and want to know how that will effect your value, or if you need someone to come and do some work I probably know the right person who can help you out, feel free to give me a call.
Until Next month
Sincerely,
Curt Derksen

May 2014 Fraser Valley Absorption Rate

Bar none, last month was the best month we have had in Abbotsford Real Estate in the last 8+ years. In Abbotsford we saw a 35% absorption rate.. you remember what absorption rate is right? If not check out this video from last year. Our inventory is low. This is great for sellers but makes it very tough for buyers. We have had many stories of multiple offers and numerous cases of homes selling over asking price.

TO SEE THE VIDEO CLICK READ MORE

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July Update

This was the home we built last week in Mexico. Stay tuned on my personal Facebook page for more photos and videos from the trip. If you think you might be interested in getting involved in projects like this please reach out to me. This is one of my passions and one of the reasons why I do what I do. I’d love the opportunity to share more with you… Click on the “Read More” button to see my video update!

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Real Estate Update

The Real Estate market was exciting the first half of this year with one of the smallest inventories we have seen in the past 6 years. Our inventory is building beginning to rebuild now, however our sales numbers in several areas of the Fraser Vally our holding strong. Want to know where the strongest sales numbers are?

If you are on Facebook be sure to go to my business page and like my page. By liking this page you will automatically see the video updates I post as well as regular industry updates.

If there is anyway that I can serve you or someone you know, like and trust I would really appreciate the opportunity.

Until next time, thanks for tuning in.

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June Update